Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind



By Rory Cellan-Jones

Technology correspondent

 

Prof Stephen Hawking, one of Britain's pre-eminent scientists, has said that efforts to create thinking machines pose a threat to our very existence.

He told the BBC:"The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race."

His warning came in response to a question about a revamp of the technology he uses to communicate, which involves a basic form of AI.

But others are less gloomy about AI's prospects.

The theoretical physicist, who has the motor neurone disease amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), is using a new system developed by Intel to speak.

Machine learning experts from the British company Swiftkey were also involved in its creation. Their technology, already employed as a smartphone keyboard app, learns how the professor thinks and suggests the words he might want to use next.

Prof Hawking says the primitive forms of artificial intelligence developed so far have already proved very useful, but he fears the consequences of creating something that can match or surpass humans.

"It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate," he said.

"Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded."

But others are less pessimistic.

"I believe we will remain in charge of the technology for a decently long time and the potential of it to solve many of the world problems will be realised," said Rollo Carpenter, creator of Cleverbot.

Cleverbot's software learns from its past conversations, and has gained high scores in the Turing test, fooling a high proportion of people into believing they are talking to a human.

Rise of the robots

Mr Carpenter says we are a long way from having the computing power or developing the algorithms needed to achieve full artificial intelligence, but believes it will come in the next few decades.

"We cannot quite know what will happen if a machine exceeds our own intelligence, so we can't know if we'll be infinitely helped by it, or ignored by it and sidelined, or conceivably destroyed by it," he says.

But he is betting that AI is going to be a positive force.

Prof Hawking is not alone in fearing for the future.

In the short term, there are concerns that clever machines capable of undertaking tasks done by humans until now will swiftly destroy millions of jobs.

In the longer term, the technology entrepreneur Elon Musk has warned that AI is "our biggest existential threat".

Robotic voice

In his BBC interview, Prof Hawking also talks of the benefits and dangers of the internet.

He quotes the director of GCHQ's warning about the net becoming the command centre for terrorists: "More must be done by the internet companies to counter the threat, but the difficulty is to do this without sacrificing freedom and privacy."

He has, however, been an enthusiastic early adopter of all kinds of communication technologies and is looking forward to being able to write much faster with his new system.

Prof Hawking is using new software to speak, but has opted to keep the same voice

But one aspect of his own tech - his computer generated voice - has not changed in the latest update.

Prof Hawking concedes that it's slightly robotic, but insists he didn't want a more natural voice.

"It has become my trademark, and I wouldn't change it for a more natural voice with a British accent," he said.

"I'm told that children who need a computer voice, want one like mine."

 

source and link to full story http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540

THE GREAT ESCAPE

“One enduring question of evolution is why sea creatures began slithering onto land. In the first cartoon of this post, I present my theory.” Dan Piraro Bizarro http://bizarrocomics.com/2014/04/05/escape-photo-evidence-beer/

.... and this is how it all happened...

Evolution pushes on as European men grow taller

A new study shows that the average height of European men has increased by nearly 11cm since the 1870s. Museum human origins expert Prof Chris Stringer explains why height fluctuates over time.

 

New research has shown that the average height of men across 15 European countries increased by nearly 11cm between the 1870s and 1980.

In Britain, the average height of a 21-year-old man increased from 1.67m (5ft 5in) in the 1870s to 1.77m (5ft 10in) in 1971-75.

Researchers from the economics departments at the University of Essex and the Australian National University in Canberra said this represents a dramatic improvement in the health of the general population.

People have generally been growing taller across Europe, the Far East and Japan since Roman times, predominantly due to better nutrition.

 

Better diet and less illness

This most recent growth spurt, however, spans a period of time that covered both World Wars and the Great Depression, suggesting the biggest cause was 'an improving disease environment', reflected in falling infant mortality rates.

This would have been the result of ongoing improvements in sanitation, hygiene and nutrition, as well as smaller family size, which means fewer mouths to feed.

Commenting on the new research, Prof Chris Stringer, human origins expert at the Natural History Museum, said that height has always fluctuated over time.

Early modern humans in Africa were tall, whereas Neanderthals who lived in Europe were relatively short.

'There is always a variation in height within a species," Prof Stringer said, 'but genetic makeup determines what height each of us ideally should be .

'The genes controlling height are also subject to natural selection, so body shape can change through time as a species continues to adapt to it environment.'

Living in a hot, dry environment, it's advantageous to be tall and slim in order to lose heat. In cold climates, it's better to be short and stocky to better retain heat.

Genetically, northern Europeans have tended to be tall in the past few thousand years, but height is always subject to environmental limitations.

Disease or lack of nutrition can interfere with genetic programming and mean we won't achieve our target height.

People living in the middle ages, for example, who were genetically similar to us and predisposed to be tall, were in fact short because of childhood disease and a limited diet.

'This doesn't mean that if we carry on eating, we will keep growing taller', said Prof Stringer.

'There is a limit, based on our genes, to how big the tallest will be and how small the smallest will be, based not only on our parents' genes but genes going back through time.'

source of this article: Natural History Museum  http://www.nhm.ac.uk/about-us/news/2013/september/evolution-pushes-on-as-european-men-grow-taller123381.html

Human species 'may split in two'

Humanity may split into an elite and an underclass, says Dr Curry Humanity may split into two sub-species in 100,000 years' time as predicted by HG Wells, an expert has said. Evolutionary theorist Oliver Curry of the London School of Economics expects a genetic upper class and a dim-witted underclass to emerge. The human race would peak in the year 3000, he said - before a decline due to dependence on technology.  People would become choosier about their sexual partners, causing humanity to divide into sub-species, he added.  The descendants of the genetic upper class would be tall, slim, healthy, attractive, intelligent, and creative and a far cry from the "underclass" humans who would have evolved into dim-witted, ugly, squat goblin-like creatures.   Race 'ironed out'  But in the nearer future, humans will evolve in 1,000 years into giants between 6ft and 7ft tall, he predicts, while life-spans will have extended to 120 years, Dr Curry claims.  Physical appearance, driven by indicators of health, youth and fertility, will improve, he says, while men will exhibit symmetrical facial features, look athletic, and have squarer jaws, deeper voices and bigger penises.  Women, on the other hand, will develop lighter, smooth, hairless skin, large clear eyes, pert breasts, glossy hair, and even features, he adds. Racial differences will be ironed out by interbreeding, producing a uniform race of coffee-coloured people.  However, Dr Curry warns, in 10,000 years time humans may have paid a genetic price for relying on technology. Spoiled by gadgets designed to meet their every need, they could come to resemble domesticated animals.   Receding chins  Social skills, such as communicating and interacting with others, could be lost, along with emotions such as love, sympathy, trust and respect. People would become less able to care for others, or perform in teams.  Physically, they would start to appear more juvenile. Chins would recede, as a result of having to chew less on processed food.  There could also be health problems caused by reliance on medicine, resulting in weak immune systems. Preventing deaths would also help to preserve the genetic defects that cause cancer.  Further into the future, sexual selection - being choosy about one's partner - was likely to create more and more genetic inequality, said Dr Curry.  The logical outcome would be two sub-species, "gracile" and "robust" humans similar to the Eloi and Morlocks foretold by HG Wells in his 1895 novel The Time Machine.  "While science and technology have the potential to create an ideal habitat for humanity over the next millennium, there is a possibility of a monumental genetic hangover over the subsequent millennia due to an over-reliance on technology reducing our natural capacity to resist disease, or our evolved ability to get along with each other, said Dr Curry.  He carried out the report for men's satellite TV channel Bravo. source of article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6057734.stm